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Monday, October 25, 2004
Actually, it's not close
Looks like W is pulling away in the last days as the nation looks at Kerry and decides "no, thanks." This site which by it's own admission is pro Kerry has Bush up 285-247. Take a look at the electoral map. The West Coast is light blue, meaning weakly for Kerry! In California Bush is only 9% down! Election Projection and RealClearPolitics have similarly encouraging numbers.
Does that mean it's all over but the voting, the post-election litigation, the vote fraud, and the riots? Maybe. I'm still worried of a mass-casualty terror strike before 11/2. Everyone says that such a thing would work to W's advantage, but I don't know if the terrorists know that. They may have learned the wrong lesson from Spain. An ugly thought I had this morning is that if the bad guys don't want to influence the election but disrupt or paralyze it, an attack on Election Day would really shake the country.
I hope for a boring 10 more days.
Update: Looks like Nomad and I cross-posted about the same thing at the same time. Jinx!
- served up by Doctor Bean @ 1:55 PM
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Each day seems to bring its share of both good and bad news for the President. Today, both Rasmussen and ABC/WaPo have Kerry up by 2 and 1 nationally. TIPP, Zogby and Gallup all have Bush up by 7, 3 and 6 nationally. Yesterday, Zogby broadcast great news in OH, FL, WI, IA and NM, but bad news in CO.
But there's a trend, and it's reflected in RCP and EP averaging. More good news than bad news. That's pretty much been the rule since the final debate. I'd be much happier if we had some solid numbers for Bush in both Florida and Ohio, but as I said to a friend earlier today, I'd rather be a Bush supporter looking at these numbers than a Kerry supporter looking at the same ones.
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But there's a trend, and it's reflected in RCP and EP averaging. More good news than bad news. That's pretty much been the rule since the final debate. I'd be much happier if we had some solid numbers for Bush in both Florida and Ohio, but as I said to a friend earlier today, I'd rather be a Bush supporter looking at these numbers than a Kerry supporter looking at the same ones.
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