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Miscellaneous thoughts and ramblings
Monday, October 25, 2004
Penultimate ElectionProjection
The next to last Election
is up. It will be welcome news for Bushies everywhere.
President Bush has moved out in front by a 296-242 electoral-vote margin.
In the projected popular vote, he is right at 50%, leading 49.9% to 48.3%.
Even though I do like these numbers, I'll reiterate that turnout will make
this election. Either candidate can still win this thing.

However, at this point, Bush does hold some significant structural
advantages. He is leading in both Iowa and Wisconsin and, judging from the
very latest polls, New Mexico as well. If Bush does end up winning those
three states, Kerry will have to win both Ohio and Florida.

Along with Real Clear Politics, this has been one of the more even-handed of the electoral vote counters. Uses some real analysis (not simply basing his numbers on the latest swings in different polls). He's had the tally at 274 for Bush for a week or two (with the only state changing being New Hampshire going to Kerry). He's now added Wisconsin, Iowa and New Mexico to the president's column. That trio would immunize the President against a loss of either Florida or Ohio (although an FL offset would send a 269 - 269 tie to the House).

EDIT: Also check out RCP's analysis of the state of the race today. It pretty much nails it right on the head. As the doctor pointed out in a comment earlier, RCP has the race at 234 to 211. The difference between RCP's count and ElectionProjection's is that EP doesn't do tossups.


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