Sunday, August 03, 2008
A Reason Why McCain is Going to Win
He's winning the old people.
From a Dick Morris piece last week...
Among those in their 40s, men back McCain by 11 points and women support him by four. And for those over 50, men vote for the Republican by a nine-point margin while women prefer him by three points.
Morris makes the point that "for a Democrat to be losing among women over 40 is without precedent in the past 20 years."
This is big news for McCain. The prospect that younger voters are going to somehow turn out in record numbers is unlikely. This point is backed up by some numbers in Michael Barone's piece from Saturday:
The first bit of evidence comes from the July 10-13 ABC/Washington Post poll. It asked registered voters if they were "certain" to vote. Only 46 percent of voters under 30 said they were -- substantially lower than the 66 percent who said so in the ABC/Washington Post poll taken Feb. 28-March 2, at a time when Obama was enjoying a string of primary and caucus victories and before the sermons of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright were circulated on youtube.com on March 13. The 46 percent of young voters saying in July they were certain to vote was far lower than the 79 percent of 65 and over voters who said they were.
Old people vote. Young people don't. That's electoral reality. McCain's winning among the people who vote. That's why he'll win in November.