Election Eve News and Notes (for Mike in Ohio)
My good friend, Mike, has been working tirelessly for the reelection of the President in Ohio. He lives at Ground Zero of the 2004 election, Cuyahoga County, Ohio. He's taken the day off from work today and tomorrow to work phones and doors as part of the massive GOTV effort implemented by Rove and Co. I heard from his wife this morning, asking me to bullet point election issues for her so he can get a fix on where we stand tonight.
I'm going to do one better. He has internet access at home; but not email access. So, this thread is here for any of us to add bullet points and links that'll provide (hopefully) encouraging information to one of the guys doing the hard work of the 2004 campaign. Feel free to add to this list throughout the day.
Mike, click the comments link below to add a comment to this thread. We'd all be interested to hear how it went on the campaign trail today.
Campaign Eve Bulletpoints:
- The Beltway Boys both called it for Bush last night. The prediction included a loss of OH, and pickups in WI, IA, MN and NM for 286 Evs. They also called a Senate pickup of 3 seats (although Daschle retained his seat), and a House pickup of several seats.
- Bush's JA in RCP's average is at 49.7%. That's not bad news.
- RCP state averages: FL: Bush +1.1, OH: Bush + 1.6, PA: Kerry +0.8, WI: Bush +0.7, IA: Bush +0.5, MN: Kerry +2.2, MI: Kerry +3.3, NM: Bush +2.0, NV: Bush +4.0, NH: Kerry +1.3.
- Important links:
This one is key. I like this guy's analysis. The link is brand new. I haven't even read it yet.
- For some reason, the direct link isn't working, so you'll just have to scroll. Jay's Election Eve poll analysis gives the President a 94.57% chance of achieving the minimal win in the Electoral College based on the most recent state-by-state polling. Read his whole state breakdown today for the numbers that lead to that conclusion.
- Okay, Zogby is all over the freakin' map. He's got one side up 6 one day, and the other up 8 in the same state the following day. It just doesn't pass the smell test of reliability. It's not just me; I'm reading criticisms of Zogby from several reputable analysts, and nobody defending him. He's also a well-known partisan, whose brother runs to a partisan Arab advocacy group. HENCE, I'm tired of seeing Zogby's results skew the RCP averages, and I've decided to see for myself where the averages would be without Mr. Zogby. I basically just took the major battleground state polls, and took Zogby out of the mix. Note that I did this regardless of whether Zogby had Bush or Kerry up. Here are the results:
Florida (avg. of 7 polls): Bush by 1.14 (Bush by 0.88 w/ Zogby)
Ohio (avg. of 6 polls): Bush by 1.48 (Bush by 1.84 w/ Zogby)
Pennsylvania (avg. of 4 polls): TIE (Kerry by 1.00 w/ Zogby)
Wisconsin (avg. of 5 polls): Bush by 2.20 (Bush by 0.67 w/ Zogby)
Iowa (avg. of 7 polls): Bush by 1.43 (Bush by 0.50 w/ Zogby)
Minnesota (avg. of 5 polls): Kerry by 3.10 (Kerry by 2.92 w/ Zogby)
The net result is that it's still tight, but the non-Zogby numbers give Bush a significantly more comfortable margin. Jay Cost's analysis is probably way more statistically sound than mine, but I think this gives a good look at it without getting too complicated.
FinalHarris' Poll gives Bush the election by FOUR POINTS!! Harris was the only poll to call the 2000 election correctly as a popular vote tie. I've been waiting for this one, and am delighted to see them giving Bush a stastistically significant lead.
Update: This actually isn't their final poll. They're continuing to poll through today, and will release their final poll in the morning.
- Breaking: Eleventh hour Circuit Court decision overturns two previous federal court decisions. Poll watchers WILL be allowed in Ohio precincts.
Update: Heard from Mike as he stopped at home for a Snickers between taking abuse at the doorsteps of Kerry supporters. He's working heavily Republican precincts in a balls-to-the-wall GOTV effort. He'll be manning the phone banks tonight after the sun sets. Those of us supporting the President owe guys like Mike our gratitude for work above-and-beyond the call.
Harris' Final Poll gives Bush the election by FOUR POINTS!! Harris was the only poll to call the 2000 election correctly as a popular vote tie. I've been waiting for this one, and am delighted to see them giving Bush a stastistically significant lead.