Sunday, October 31, 2004
I've been waiting for the final Gallup all day, but now that it's here, I just don't know what to make of it, other than that it's close. Nationally, it has Bush up 49 to 47. At the state level, it has a Bush victory, but the allocation of states is kinda whacky.
Of the 6 battleground states it polls, it gives PA (21), WI (10) and IA (7) to Bush, while giving FL (27), OH (20) and MN (10) to Kerry. I guess if you reversed PA and FL, it wouldn't be THAT far off other polling, but the margins are kind of high in several cases.
Assuming a pickup of New Mexico for Bush and a pick up of New Hampshire for Kerry, and a hold of every other state by the party that won it in '00, you start with Bush having 279. Subtract OH and FL per above, and Bush has 232. Give PA, WI and IA to Bush, and you end up with a total of exactly 270. So, it's yet another permutation of polls that give the election to Bush in differing manners.
I guess it comes down to this. Bush has more options to get to 270. Kerry needs to nearly run the table in order to win. Bush does not. That's why, despite differing state breakdowns, Bush continues to come out on top in various poll-driven projections. But, things could still go the wrong way if everything breaks for the opposition.
GET OUT AND VOTE!