Wednesday, October 27, 2004
Hawaii (to Doc)
That's a nice pessimistic, but not completely accurate assessment you've linked to there.
Moran drops the cliche about undecideds breaking for the challenger. He should do some research to support this, because the numbers don't support it. I'm on my way out, but I'll dig up the numbers that say it just ain't so when I get back. Undecideds, in the last week of a race, generally break even or for the incumbant. Once in the past 10 presidential elections, have undecideds broken decively for the challenger. That was 1980.
True, states' historical voting trends are good indicators of future voting patterns. But, Moran fails to note that while Hawaii usually goes Democratic, it also votes incumbant, voting to reelect both Nixon and Reagan, and nearly giving its votes to Ford in '76. Hawaii also has a sizable military population, and a popular, recently elected republican governor.
In New Jersey, Moran ignores the 9/11 factor. New Jersey lost more people than any state other than New York on 9/11. It's a factor.
Moran is correct that one poll here or there is likely to be an outlier. What he neglects to mention is that there are two recent polls from Hawaii, both showing Bush leads (albeit small ones). The only other recent polling came immediately on the heels of the DNC, and only had Kerry up by 6 or 7 (well below Gore's victory margin). No recent polls have Kerry up.
There are also several polls indicating that New Jersey is close... although there are several indicating comfortable leads for Kerry too.
I'm not willing to put either in Bush's camp, but nor am I willing to concede them or argue with Michael Barone about Hawaii. My hunch is that, based on the polling average, without a late, sizable break for Bush nationally, NJ is out of reach. Hawaii, on the other hand could surprise.
I include neither in Bush's column for my prediction, which I'm revising from a week ago by subtracting Maine's 2nd CD.
Bush: 306, Kerry 232
Update: As promised... http://www.dalythoughts.com/Update-05-26-04.htm. Scroll about a third of the way down to read about breaking undecideds, or if you have time, read the whole piece. Daly does good stuff.