Saturday, October 30, 2004
State of the Race
From an email I sent to my dad earlier...
Of the Bush states from 2000, the only ones that are seriously in trouble are New Hampshire and Ohio. I think he'll probably lose New Hampshire, and Ohio is a tossup.
That starts him out with 254 votes.
I think he will most likely pick up Iowa and New Mexico.
That brings him to 266 votes (270 needed for outright victory, 269 sends it to the House of Reps).
Meaning that he needs only 1 of the following in-play states for victory:
NJ, PA, OH, MI, WI, MN, OR, HI or even NH.
Of those, I think his chances are better than even in OH (20), and WI (10)
His chances are realistic in MN (10) and PA (21)
More of a long-shot in NJ (15), MI (17), HI (4) and OR (7) and NH (4).
Bottom line: Bush needs one of these. Kerry has to sweep them.