Saturday, October 30, 2004
Polls to Watch and Polls NOT to Watch
Via Jay Cost at the Horserace Blog
Polls to watch this weekend:
Polls to avoid this weekend:
Any poll you have never heard of
Read his whole 10/30 analysis of the state of the race.
Where to watch the polls:
Real Clear Politics of course.
*Update: I pretty much agree with Cost, but there are two that I believe my other guru might take exception to. Newsweek might be one to watch. Drummond has indicated that they are open about their methods, and have a decent track record of sampling. Strategic Vision might be one to avoid, as it is a GOP polling firm, and probably has some inherant bias.
Some relevant posts from Drummond at Polipundit:
The Leaning Poll of State Bias
Poll Methodology: a 2004 Guide
Update 2: Almost seems like Jay read my first update, because in his afternoon state-of-the-race analysis, he explains why he uses Strategic Vision, and has decided to include Newsweek in his sampling. Here's the analysis. Excerpt:
Right now the EV math is looking awfully tough for Kerry. He is definitely
behind in FL, IA and, though I do not cover it here, NM. This gives Bush a
minimum of 266 EVs. Plus, Bush is likely leading in OH and WI -- and I think
Kerry will be unable to hold MN when all is said and done. The word on the
ground is that BC04's organization in MN is a sight to behold. The big question
on my mind right now is not whether Bush gets to 269, but whether he breaks 300
(which he would do if he carries FL, IA, NM, WI, OH and MN -- that would be
What I REALLY like about that conclusion is that it exactly agrees with the prediction I made over a week ago, and am sticking by. Kerry takes NH. Bush holds all his other states from 2000, and adds IA, WI, MN and NM for a 306 tally. Note that Fred Barnes comes to the same tally in his prediction (although he doesn't indicate how) at the Weekly Standard's staff prediction page.